Reachmahjong.com

http://tenhou.net/sc/prof.html

I\'ve been looking through the extensive statistical log on the Tenhou website and come up with this list of average yaku usage probabilites (taken from hundreds of thousands of actual games) with roughly +/- 2% margins:


Top Tier (50%)

* Dora
* Red Fives


Tier 1 (40%)

* Reach
* Dragon or Wind Set


Tier 2 (20%)

i.e. once per round

* Peace
* Inside
* Concealed Self Draw
* Hidden Dora


Tier 3 (10%)

i.e. once per hanchan

* Half Flush
* All Sets (often lower)
* One Shot Win (often lower)


Tier 4 (5%)

i.e. once every other hanchan

* Triple Run
* Double Run
* Seven Pairs
* Complete Run (often lower)
* Full Flush


Tier 5 (2%)

getting very rare

* Outside
* Full Outside (often lower)
* Three Self Drawn Sets


Tier 6 (Under 1%)

extremely rare

* Little Three Dragons
* All Terminals and Honors
* Pretty Much Everything Else + Yakumans




Some interesting and perhaps surprising facts:

* Big Three Dragons is more common than Little Three Dragons

* Little Three Dragons, All Terminals/Honors and Double Double Runs are all more rare than Thirteen Orphans or Four Concealed Triplets.

* Three Matching Triplets and Three Kans are both rarer than Double Yakumans.

* Triple Mangans are rarer than Yakumans.

Thanks for putting this together, it does make interesting reading!

I´m playing Reach on offline console games without any stats so it´s really good to see data like this, especially taken from such a large sample.

I guess the thing with Big vs Little Three Drags is that there´s only one tile difference between them but a huge difference in score (and kudos) so if you get Little Three and there´s at least one of the Dragons you need still in play then you´re gonna take the chance and go for it! I know I would. :)

Interesting to see the other comparisons - obviously I buck the trend as I´ve had Triple Pung before but no Double Yakuman!

I´ve been playing for a couple of months and I´m still waiting (impatiently!) for my first named limit hand. I´ve been tenpai on a few different ones and I got counted Yakuman once but I still want to get a \"proper\" one, so obviously these are of particular interest to me!

I´m only online at work (in the UK) and my computer won´t display the text on Tenhou. I´d really appreciate it if you could please tell us what percentage of hands overall are Yakuman, also what are the actual percentages for each of the most common limit hands?

The percentage of Yakumans is roughly 0.18% of hands according to Tenhou.

The two most common Yakumans are Four Concealed Triplets and Thirteen Orphans, both of which have an occurrence rate of about 0.04%.

I\'m a little worried I may have been misreading the tables. What\'s the difference between the first column and the fourth column on that Tenhou page?

Also...

Are you based in London? I am and am always up for meeting more people for live games if so!

Hey, that´s great. Thanks very much! :)

So (with skilled play) about one in 550 winning hands scores Yakuman... that´s reassuring.

I do visit London fairly often but I actually live in Ipswich (about 70 miles away). I´m also very much a newbie!

Do you play real games with real people often?

The 4th column seems to be the % of the total yaku for an avg hand.

Example: Honitsu are part of 6.1% of all winning hand but because it gives 2-3 yaku (2.08 avg as by second column) 12.78% of an avg hands yaku are coming from honitsu.

We can also see from the second column that 8.7% of all honitsu hands are closed.

OHH pretty!