What would you do?

[Referee]

What would you do in this situation?
South 4-1

You are in double south with 34400 in 1st place. Center opponent is 2nd with 30800 and is in riichi from six turns ago. Opponent on the right is 3rd with 21900, and oya has 10900. 2 sticks in the middle.

Your hand is and you've just drawn for tenpai. Problem is that Nan is fresh.

Problem is if I forgo tenpai, and Center is the only one in tenpai, game ends and I lose 33800 to 33400. If I discard the fresh round wind and someone is waiting for it then It is game over, or move into South 4-2 with a big pressure.

[or2az]

I wish I knew
(a) how many tiles were left in the live wall
(b) how many were showing on the table
(c) what center opponents' discard pool looked like (the others too)

Nevertheless, here are my thoughts;
If I hold on to , and break up my hand, it is still possible that ANY of the opponents can "ron" my discard on any turn unless I am absolutely sure I am tossing safe tiles for all of them, which might not be that easy (for me), and if I fail to do so, I might lose anyway.
(and if it does get to a draw, no tenpai for me)
If I toss the , and it passes, and then tsumogiri everything after that, the same thing might happen but if it gets to a draw, I'm tenpai.
I might even win in the meantime, especially since center has to toss everything he draws.
If the gets claimed, there is still a chance I might not lose, if it gets claimed by someone other than center with a low points hand.

I would toss the and go for it. I would rather have my fate determined by me as opposed to the tenpai situation in a possible draw.

[Referee]

Five tiles remaining, that's why I agonized so much.

One discarded, is fresh.

Center's discards:




Plus a somewhere that was ponned by oya.

[or2az]

One thing I didn't consider here mainly because I'm still not 100% sure of the rules regarding it is the continuance. If this hand ends in a draw, is that it?
You stated that if center is the only one in tenpai that the game is over and you lose.
Does it not depend on whether the dealer is tenpai?
If he is, is there another hand to be played where the seat-winds stay the same?
And if he's not, is there another hand to be played where the seat-winds move?
And it the dealer happens to win this hand, don't we also keep going with no change in seat-winds?
I bring this up because you are the next oya, where anything can happen, so I would be more prone to try to win it now.
This renchan stuff still confuses me a little, particularly when it's south-4.

[Referee]

I would be the next oya, except that would be in West-1, and the game is over.

If oya is positive for noten-bappu, he gets a renchan (so if everyone is tenpai, game over). If the dealer wins, he gets a renchan (unless he gets enough of a big win, since this game has the agari-yame rule, or he happens to bust someone with his win, which with the current scores, amounts to the same thing).

BTW I can't know what would have happened. I lost that game. I discarded betaori and next goaround again (I drew another), and then Rightie discarded into Center's hand for a Houtei Riichi Dora-3 mangan, so oya's hand was not revealed.

[saitym]

Let's just assume that if you bail, you come 2nd 90% of the time, and it ends there. If don't push the south , you come second and if you do push the south there are two immediate outcomes, you get ronned in which case you are second anyway, the other , it goes through and you have a chance of actually winning the hand and come first of maintain tenpai until the final draw and come first assuming the oya is not tenpai also. It doesn't even matter how dangerous the role is to be honest, unless you fully convinced that it will get ronned, in you circumstance, there is actually no reason not to push. The only time you can bail is if your convinced that the oya is tenpai, and even then I would push south because I don't consider south to be a big enough danger time to bail out especially from tenpai
Apologise for any spelling mistakes or grammar, writing from a phone

[Referee]

I may end up 3rd is South is ronned by RHO, and it is 5200+ (40/3 or higher)

Me: 34400 - 5500 = 28900
Right: 21900 + 5500 + 2000 = 29400

[saitym]

It really doesn't matter to be honest, you should push a jihai even if it's fresh to get a yaku ari tenpai and just push for 1st. It really depends on what your aim is for the game. if your playing standard 10-20 uma with 25000 starting points with 30000 'refund' you getting first by pushing will get you around +45 points. if you get ronned best case scenario you'll have around +10 points but if you go down to 3rd you'll have around - 12 points lets say. If you bail you get the +10 but if you push, you're still highly likely to get +10, worst case -12 but best case +45 by coming first.. The likely hood of you actually being ronned if you tsumogiri until the final discard is lets say 25%, and the probability that if you get ronned it is higher than 8000 points is 40%. There is also the probability of the guy riiching tsuming the winning tile (around 20%, you become 2nd) , you winning your hand tsumo or ron ( around 25% , you become first) and ryuukyoku where you are first by 20 % (oya not tenpai) and nither oya tenpai (80%) (of the remaining percentage (30%)). (the percentages are roughly taken from strategy books on these kinds of data( i have over/under estimating in some cases probably))The distribution for pushing goes something like this (completely ignoring anyone else except for the guy riiching:

you coming first (25% + ryyukyoku percentage (30% *20 ))= 31%
you coming second ((25% *60%)+ 20% ) =35 %
you coming third ( 25% * 40%) = 10 %
neither and oya renchan ( 30% * 80%) = 24 %

by you not pushing an betaori, you get this distribution
you second = 76%
neither and oya renchan = 24%

calculating the expected points value assuming no ryuukyoku will be
when you push (45*31%)+(10*35%)+(-12*10%)/76% = +21.3 poits
when you bail it's just +10 points

You can ignore RHO if he is menzen and hasn't riiched already, very unlikely to be tenpai with a south wait as the other pair will be yaku nashi and even if it was , very likely to be cheap ( or else he would have riichied already)

Obviously you can see that pushing is much more advantageous points wise. just because you have a chance of actually winning and coming 1st.

Any questions will be welcome!!!

[mrfeng]

chance of oya pushing to tenpai is extremely high. This means high chance for him to deal in which makes you 2nd.

The game will also continues if it ends with a draw as oya is likely to push till tenpai successfully.

Therefore, there is no benefit trying to pray that you maintain your lead. Your current lead is not enough to do anything so you have to push.

Just discard nan. If you managed to deal into 3rd or oya (1.5k), it is a bonus for you.

[Archon_Wing]

There is a fundamental problem with the thought process here and that is one detail is missing. How many unsafe discards did you make since his riichi? Were you already iishantan? Because if this south was already in your hand before you reached tenpai you really needed to decide there--now is too late. If he was waiting for a south then he is still waiting for it.

If you were aiming for tenpai before this turn, the south does nothing. If not, then you should be bailing as soon as you have the south. No point in reaching a tenpai that you will break apart anyways. Since everyone else has an incentive for tenpai and east winning or even collecting no ten payments will beat you, I would discard the south if you want 1st. If you want to secure second the odds are against 3rd anyways. It is simply a fact that you will draw additionally risky tiles in the turns after so it is not merely a south you need to worry about. It is the smallest hurdle.

[Ignatius]

I would toss the and go for it. I would rather have my fate determined by me as opposed to the tenpai situation in a possible draw.

As or2az said... Also reading what the others wrote, I would choose to throw a Nan. At least you keep your tenpai with wait.

But I´m sometimes too pushy playing this game...