I wish I knew
(a) how many tiles were left in the live wall
(b) how many
![9-dot 9-dot](./images/smilies/9d.gif)
were showing on the table
(c) what center opponents' discard pool looked like (the others too)
Nevertheless, here are my thoughts;
If I hold on to
![:south :south](./images/smilies/south.gif)
, and break up my hand, it is still possible that ANY of the opponents can "ron" my discard on any turn unless I am absolutely sure I am tossing safe tiles for all of them, which might not be that easy (for me), and if I fail to do so, I might lose anyway.
(and if it does get to a draw, no tenpai for me)
If I toss the
![:south :south](./images/smilies/south.gif)
, and it passes, and then tsumogiri everything after that, the same thing might happen but if it gets to a draw, I'm tenpai.
I might even win in the meantime, especially since center has to toss everything he draws.
If the
![:south :south](./images/smilies/south.gif)
gets claimed, there is still a chance I might not lose, if it gets claimed by someone other than center with a low points hand.
I would toss the
![:south :south](./images/smilies/south.gif)
and go for it. I would rather have my fate determined by me as opposed to the tenpai situation in a possible draw.