WWYD 2012/08/01

[Shirluban]

[Kyuu]

Shoulda been dropped earlier. I don't care if it is Dora. It is also a Cancer. With the way the hand looks like, it'll be dropped anyways sooner or later.

[xKime]

5m.

Bigger cancer than North. Score-wise, rather than the sheer hope of reaching with pinfu nomi (or even dama for 1000 points), ittsuu (open or otherwise) along with the possibility of pairing dora should be the central focus. If the 45679p shape evolved into a ryanmen, no objections.

Edit:

I will elaborate a little more. First place is unreachable. Second place has a difference of 18700 points. We are currently in third place, but fourth place is barely 7500 points away; a small difference not too reassuring. This means that unless it will turn our hand into a mangan class hand, we do not wish to riichi, as this gives last place a big chance (high risk, low return). Taking that stand, we have two options: either win a considerably big hand in hopes of moving up to second during the following rounds (riichi, pinfu, ittsuu - riichi, tsumo, ittsuu - ittsuu dora 2 - etc), or assure a win to move this round for which purpose it is valid to take tenpai with a chii (with the plus of taking the kyoutaku and tsumibou on the table when you win), and folding if East or West take the initiative. It is fairly important that North doesn't get a winning hand.

For that reason, there is no point in keeping the 566m shapes hoping to draw 7 or 9p for pinfu. For one, that road is far slower (you can't call tiles), and on top of that it is much cheaper. There is a third aspect to that discarding order as well, and it is the implied risk of dealing in by keeping tiles that are not vital to the structure and build of the hand. These aspects make kimeuchi (decide previously on the shape) the most plausible decision.

There is also yet another aspect, and it is the point where North gets called by the North player, as this assures him at least 7700, and thus accomplishing his scoring condition quite easily; the probability for ending in fourth place rising up greatly.

Since North is not a tile you absolutely can not use (in fact, you should be more than happy to pair it up), and the risk level of it is not necessarily bigger than that of middle tiles in aka-ari mahjong. Calling it cancer is a bit of exaggeration, compared to how expensive manzu are to just keep clustering them inside the hand. It is a better plan to keep it and observe what happens next. Even if it were not dora, but a dead honor tile, the right procedure would still be keeping it.

You must clearly think about these factors when you are closer to last than you are to anything else.

North. Shoulda been dropped earlier. I don't care if it is Dora. It is also a Cancer. With the way the hand looks like, it'll be dropped anyways sooner or later.

Even if you decide to think this way, it is not the right timing for this. Manzu are expensive, and 5m happens to fall into aidayonken for the dealer. I can't come up with any number right now, but I am pretty sure there are more dangerous patterns involving 5m than those involving North, and especially more so if you compare the advantages and disadvantages of it from both, defensive and offensive positions regarding the current score situation.

If you wish to do this, the best timing you have is when you draw a real safe tile. It will still be substandard, but it will at least be less substandard.

[WaveMaster]

Late to the party on this one. I actually saw this a couple days ago, and my 5-second have-to-discard-a-tile-now reaction was North then, but I wanted to wait and brood over it a bit; partly because it's a complicated question and partly because the player's first five discards put me in a position I probably wouldn't have put myself in normally. Kime already brought up most of the relevant issues, but I'll have to restate some of them for no other reason than so that this post reads coherently.

As mentioned, we are currently in third place. Fourth place is behind us by 7500 points; with one riichi stick and two dealer counters still on the table from last hand he can overtake us with only a moderate hand. Second place is ahead of us by 18700 points. We can still potentially overtake him before the game ends, especially since our dealer turn is coming up after this hand, but it will be rough. First place is probably out of reach barring a great deal of luck. Both the fourth place and second place players have discards that indicate the potential for a half-flush or full-flush in characters (the second place player may simply be holding on to his character and honor tiles so that the fourth place player cannot call them). And finally the dora is the wind tile for the fourth place player. Here's what I conclude from this:

From purely a fastest-to-win point of view, the North tile slows us down. It doesn't enable us to call any tiles that we couldn't otherwise, and it doesn't connect to any other tiles besides itself. If we were to reach tenpai without drawing a second North ourselves, we are unlikely to be able to win by discard on this tile.

From purely a overtaking-second-place point of view, the hand is not likely to be very valuable without two or more dora. If we really want to overtake second, than we want more than a 1 han hand here. However, if we are so devoted to overtaking second place, then there's not much stopping us from getting to closed tenpai and declaring riichi after discarding North now. This could get us into striking range at second place during our dealer round as well.

From a purely don't-deal-in-to-fourth point of view, I would discard 9p. Normally I would think the dealer would be satisfied with his current score and not fight for a bonus round in this situation (although the two dealer repeats on the table already make me question that somewhat). You could just not cut any character tiles or honor tiles. Given that the second place player looks to have already adopted this strategy, it will be difficult for the fourth place player to complete his half-flush or full-flush without being able to call many tiles (more so if/when the dealer backs off). It's not unreasonable that this could lead to an exhaustive draw where only the fourth place player is tenpai (or nobody is tenpai). This is not great (because the fourth place player probably closes 4000 points on you), but it also leaves you still in third place in your dealer round where the reward for being aggressive is higher.

When I aggregate these three points of view, I don't favor the notion of fighting for a big point gain here to try to overtake second. The distance is big enough that I don't like the risk/reward trade-off right now. Even if I win with a moderate hand here (3-4 han), that will only close about half the distance unless I hit the second place player directly, and if I ron off the fourth place player it could kill him and end the game with me still in third anyway. Rather, I will simply try to advance the game to my dealer round, and see how things look then. If my starting hand then shows a good shot at a dealer 4-han or better, then I'll play it aggressively, and otherwise I'll just aim to stay stable in third place.

I also don't strongly favor the notion of just bailing immediately and hoarding all the character and honor tiles. While I do think there's a good chance that the fourth-place player will not be able to finish if all the other players do this, I'm not confident enough in that decision to immediately discard the possibility of ending the hand early with a cheap win. Further, even if the fourth place player is not able to complete a triplet of dora; he could still complete a half-flush hand with a pair of dora, or a half-flush with a triplet of any other value tile (all of them remain possible), or a half-flush seven pairs, or a full-flush, and all of these would be bad for us and would force us to play aggressively in the next round anyway.

So, I think the best way to play this hand is to cut the North now. If the fourth place player calls it, this isn't a disaster. His hand was dangerous when it only contained two North tiles, and now his call will have put the other players on edge. You can fall back to defensive play by not discarding character tiles for a bit, while watching the fourth-place player's discards to see if he abandons the half-flush hand, and you can still try to win if you see a relatively safe path to a quick hand.

If nobody calls the North, this is the best possible outcome, because now you have the widest possible path to a winning hand. If you draw or are able to call an 8p, then you have a straight and can go out however you like. If you draw 4p, 7p, or 9p; you can drop the remaining unneeded tile in that suit and be one-away for pinfu. If you draw 6s or 9s, you can drop 9p and be one away from a complete hand if you later draw 4m, 7m, 4p, or 7p (which is either pinfu or has no yaku, but can still be won with self-draw and has a few ways to get back to pinfu). If you draw 7m, you can drop 9p and similarly be one-away waiting for 6s, 9s, 4p, or 7. If you draw 4m, you can actually still potentially use the extra 6m by dropping 1p and 9p, and waiting to complete the 6-9s and 3-6m patterns, which could add tanyao if you get the 6s. Finally, if you can call 6s, then you can also drop 1p and 9p and aim for open tanyao. And I haven't even included any possibility of turning the 6m into a triplet (since it's very unlikely), but this does technically add even more useful tiles.

My point in detailing the above is: there are a ton of useful tiles and ways forward that will allow you to attempt to end the hand early by discarding North now, and in my opinion that's worth aiming for while you still potentially have the freedom to do so. I personally would have dropped the North sooner, and probably held on to the 8m longer, although it's impossible to say for certain without knowing everything that happened previously in this game.

[xKime]

My point in detailing the above is: there are a ton of useful tiles and ways forward that will allow you to attempt to end the hand early by discarding North now

Actually, there really aren't, and I will follow to explain to you why.

From purely a fastest-to-win point of view, the North tile slows us down.

f nobody calls the North, this is the best possible outcome, because now you have the widest possible path to a winning hand. (...) If you draw 4p, 7p, or 9p; you can drop the remaining unneeded tile in that suit and be one-away for pinfu. If you draw 6s or 9s, you can drop 9p and be one away from a complete hand if you later draw 4m, 7m, 4p, or 7p (which is either pinfu or has no yaku, but can still be won with self-draw and has a few ways to get back to pinfu). If you draw 7m, you can drop 9p and similarly be one-away waiting for 6s, 9s, 4p, or 7. If you draw 4m, you can actually still potentially use the extra 6m by dropping 1p and 9p, and waiting to complete the 6-9s and 3-6m patterns, which could add tanyao if you get the 6s. Finally, if you can call 6s, then you can also drop 1p and 9p and aim for open tanyao.

You seem to live in an alternate universe where chasing pinfu (which will do both, restrict you from calling tiles and quite evidently lower EV) or tan yao (whose natural discard procedure will in most cases require you to drop a shanten which you cannot do under the present situation) are in any way faster than the current shape, provide extra security (which they don't) or have a higher EV (which is not so either). (Either you believe that, or you are rooting for options that don't fulfill either of those three requirements)

I don't expect you to be able to calculate exact EV in-game, but when you are an experienced player you can more or less figure out these easy EV-change cases (basic situations, manualbook-patterns) on your own just by looking at the tile shape. But, to be sure and to better explain this to you, I took the time to go into ara's tool and find it out tangibly. Turns out, I was, as expected, right about my judgment on that:



I had already figured out all those possibilities you enlist, and soon accurately categorized them as inferior to the current shape. Being so the case, rather than keep the middle 5 of the expensive manzu suit, discarding it now is more strategic.

If your score situation was so that you will want to push even after kamicha or shimocha riichi, then I do not think North is bad from solely a theoretic standpoint (EV being the same). However, since you have nothing to worry about once one of them reach (as you will just ori), you should humbly carry North for the time being instead of a 5m that you are not to ever use efficiently. Even if shimocha calls this now, it is not a disaster on itself, as it is also a possible tactic (quite common in the higher planes of tenhou) to assist your shimocha in these score situations.

After North has been discarded, you may proceed to discard it accordingly (more so if you happen to draw a considerably safe tile on the same turn).

His hand was dangerous when it only contained two North tiles, and now his call will have put the other players on edge.

You should have realized by now that there is a quite big gap between a hand with two dora unable to call tiles, and a hand with three dora able to call any tile. Also, you do not wish the other two players at edge, you are not competing against them this hand, right now, as things stand.

If nobody calls the North, this is the best possible outcome, because now you have the widest possible path to a winning hand. If you draw or are able to call an 8p, then you have a straight and can go out however you like. If you draw 4p, 7p, or 9p; you can drop the remaining unneeded tile in that suit and be one-away for pinfu. If you draw 6s or 9s, you can drop 9p and be one away from a complete hand if you later draw 4m, 7m, 4p, or 7p (which is either pinfu or has no yaku, but can still be won with self-draw and has a few ways to get back to pinfu).

Ah-hah... drawing 69s and discarding 9p for one away. I see... Very interesting move, except...
...
You would be just throwing away ittsuu tenpai.

Herp, derp.

(Don't worry, I don't think you would ever commit that error online, as the flashy riichi button would just show up for you and you would just curiously happen to click it to see what your wait was, but you do realize that your vision of this hand is, to say the least, off)

[WaveMaster]

You seem to live in an alternate universe where chasing pinfu (which will do both, restrict you from calling tiles and quite evidently lower EV) or tan yao (whose natural discard procedure will in most cases require you to drop a shanten which you cannot do under the present situation) are in any way faster than the current shape, provide extra security (which they don't) or have a higher EV (which is not so either). (Either you believe that, or you are rooting for options that don't fulfill either of those three requirements)

You seem to live in an alternate universe where discarding North now prevents you from calling tiles in the future, which it doesn't. You still have the mostly complete ittsu in your hand, and you haven't abandoned it. Tanyao is not a very likely option with this hand, just something that comes up on the off-chance that you draw 4m after discarding North. At that point, you're 1shanten, and you stay 1shanten if you drop 9p. Then, you could enter tenpai with tanyao by calling 6s and dropping 1p. So it doesn't decrease your shanten count, but it's just one of many other possible outcomes.

I don't expect you to be able to calculate exact EV in-game, but when you are an experienced player you can more or less figure out these easy EV-change cases (basic situations, manualbook-patterns) on your own just by looking at the tile shape. But, to be sure and to better explain this to you, I took the time to go into ara's tool and find it out tangibly. Turns out, I was, as expected, right about my judgment on that:

If we're just trying to move to the next hand, why are we calculating EV anyway?

I had already figured out all those possibilities you enlist, and soon accurately categorized them as inferior to the current shape. Being so the case, rather than keep the middle 5 of the expensive manzu suit, discarding it now is more strategic.

It's hard for me to comment on this, because I'm not familiar with the specifics of the EV calculator. It seems like you're evaluating the situation where we discard North and then draw 9p. I imagine it wants us to keep the possibility of ittsu alive because it's callable and because it gives one han that could still potentially be stacked with pinfu. It may also be considering the possibility that we riichi with this hand, which I don't see happening. Regardless, I don't find the calculation very relevant in a situation where I am trying for a quick win with minimal vulnerability.

If you want my answer to this new WWYD you propose, then I would say that it depends on how I feel about discarding the 6m. If I feel comfortable about discarding the 6m, then I would and take the 1shanten for pinfu. If I felt queasy about discarding the 6m (by the vague terms "comfortable" and "queasy" I refer to my impression that someone will call this tile to advance their hand, which would be based on their calls and discards, which aren't fully known since this is in the future), then I would probably discard the drawn 9p. This is a distinction I previously removed from the post in order to to keep things simple, because once you start talking about hypotheticals where you will make different decisions based on the riskiness of a tile, it becomes difficult to talk about all the potential futures.

You should have realized by now that there is a quite big gap between a hand with two dora unable to call tiles, and a hand with three dora able to call any tile. Also, you do not wish the other two players at edge, you are not competing against them this hand, right now, as things stand.

His hand is very likely to already be able to call tiles, or do you not look at those discards and immediately become concerned about at least a half-flush? While it's true that a triplet of his wind would allow him to ignore the half-flush and try something deceptive like pair wait on a pin or sou tile while still showing half-flush, that's enough of an edge-case that I am not hugely concerned about it. At this point, I've already assumed that he is able to call tiles.

Ah-hah... drawing 69s and discarding 9p for one away. I see... Very interesting move, except...
...
You would be just throwing away ittsuu tenpai.

You're correct. This is an artifact of my post previously being larger and including a discussion of how you might make discards that don't strictly advance your shanten count, but still keep you viable, in the event that later in the game either or both of the 5m and the 6m appear to be risky. Tossing the 9p instead of the 5m in this instance allows you to keep both the 5m and 6m in your hand, and also allows you to keep a future 3m or 6m in your hand without completely abandoning your chance at winning before your opponents. I condensed this section a lot before posting because it was very unwieldy and difficult to follow, and it seems like the potential ittsu win there after drawing 69s and waiting on 8p got mistakenly merged into the ittsu win after drawing/calling 8p and waiting on 69s, which is obviously not the same thing.

Anyway, I think this is probably where the confusion came from with respect to the "not calling tiles" stuff above. I don't intend to ignore the ittsu if it happens to come to me and there doesn't appear to be any great danger in making the discards necessary to enter that tenpai. But I'm also not going to commit to it right now by cutting the 5m, because that limits my ability to use any further character tiles, when there are still other ways this hand could go.

(Don't worry, I don't think you would ever commit that error online, as the flashy riichi button would just show up for you and you would just curiously happen to click it to see what your wait was, but you do realize that your vision of this hand is, to say the least, off)

Cute dig, and of course it's my fault for overlooking this in my post. However, this is not something I'm really familiar with since I mostly play at Toupai (although I've recently taken up Tenhou as well). The buttons there are always present at the bottom of your screen; while they will light up by default if you can actually press them, you can turn that off and I always have because it's frankly annoying. Once you make that change, there isn't any indication when you enter tenpai; when you do enter tenpai, pressing the riichi button does not show you which tiles you can discard to remain in tenpai (or what your wait would be); and if you discard a tile that does not leave you in tenpai after having pressed riichi, you just discard that tile without declaring riichi.

[xKime]

You seem to live in an alternate universe where discarding North now prevents you from calling tiles in the future, which it doesn't. You still have the mostly complete ittsu in your hand, and you haven't abandoned it. Tanyao is not a very likely option with this hand, just something that comes up on the off-chance that you draw 4m after discarding North. At that point, you're 1shanten, and you stay 1shanten if you drop 9p. Then, you could enter tenpai with tanyao by calling 6s and dropping 1p. So it doesn't decrease your shanten count, but it's just one of many other possible outcomes.

If you had read my post appropriately, you would realize that the point is not whether you abandon the possibility of calling tiles or not, but that you do not require 5m to complete this hand in the least. Neither do you need North, but there is a right time and place for every discard and you are not being true to it. In other words, you are just making things worse for yourself. Not that I mind, I feed on players like you, but I am taking my time to explain to you that keeping North is, even if a little more than marginally, a superior procedure in more ways than keeping 5m.

If we're just trying to move to the next hand, why are we calculating EV anyway?

Because the inferiority in speed for a one away hand where you cannot call tiles with is already to be understood without any explanation. I am merely expanding the explanation on a different plane, as to illustrate how not only does it not excel in speed, but it doesn't exceed in point totals either. As we already knew the pinfu possibility doesn't exceed in defense either, that is a third strike, rendering the pinfu evolution as trivial and unneeded as it does not fulfill even one of the three requirements to pursue it.

It's hard for me to comment on this, because I'm not familiar with the specifics of the EV calculator. It seems like you're evaluating the situation where we discard North and then draw 9p. I imagine it wants us to keep the possibility of ittsu alive because it's callable and because it gives one han that could still potentially be stacked with pinfu. It may also be considering the possibility that we riichi with this hand, which I don't see happening. Regardless, I don't find the calculation very relevant in a situation where I am trying for a quick win with minimal vulnerability.

I am examining the situation that you suggested, where you finally find a hand evolution for pinfu.

You imagine well, it is projecting on ittsuu because of its winning percentages, and because of its possible point total. And if pinfu evolution doesn't excel in either of those things, why should you even consider it, as quite obviously it is not going to happen. And before you reply once again with "it is not like discarding North is negating the possibility for ittsuu", stop looking at only your own hand, and think about either the situation if North calls it, or the situation when you kept 5m for a little too long.

No. Not only does this not consider riichi in the mixture; even if it did, it would obviously do it for BOTH options, thus keeping the ratio the same. You already have the quick win, and the minimal vulnerability is what you are going for by keeping North at least for the time being. Your scale of values is off, and it is quite evident you are not looking ahead, or not in an appropriate way. Do keep in mind that your threat here is toimen, and shimocha and kamicha are less likely to make a wait around the jihai dora.

Not to mention that, if you ever see yourself in such situation, in upper circles you will be marked by the other players once you throw away this dora from within your hand, also potentially slowing you down if your kamicha decides to bail out on you.

If you want my answer to this new WWYD you propose, then I would say that it depends on how I feel about discarding the 6m. If I feel comfortable about discarding the 6m, then I would and take the 1shanten for pinfu. If I felt queasy about discarding the 6m (by the vague terms "comfortable" and "queasy" I refer to my impression that someone will call this tile to advance their hand, which would be based on their calls and discards, which aren't fully known since this is in the future), then I would probably discard the drawn 9p. This is a distinction I previously removed from the post in order to to keep things simple, because once you start talking about hypotheticals where you will make different decisions based on the riskiness of a tile, it becomes difficult to talk about all the potential futures.

This is not a WWYD I proposed, but the very precise situation that you had aimed for with keeping 5m (well, the only case relatively worth of discussion and argument, I mean).

How you "feel" on discarding 6m? I am sorry, I don't acknowledge this sort of occult-playing. I know players who do, I respect that, that is kosher, but you render logical arguments invalid if you go there. And well, if you refer about your "impression" of calls, and hand progression, you do not need to mind or care for your shimocha certainly, as you don't mind him winning either, as it is not a bad outcome that he end as the hand winner this round. Not to mention that it is necessary to think about the many potential futures if you wish to ever get results, so I have to talk to you about hypothetical futures whether you like it or not.

Manzu becoming not a good suit to discard in a few rounds is becoming a certainly likely future. As for what to do with the burden that it symbolizes regarding your timing to discard it or not and what to do with it, you will be freed from those burdens when either kamicha or shimocha riichi (as you should normally go into betaori), either kamicha, shimocha or toimen discard North, you call a tile for tenpai, or you draw your tenpai yourself. Also, when none of those things happen, you should think that you were better off keeping it for yourself. If you fail to think ahead, you are already failing. The risk, remains the same one and only, toimen reaching and winning by either tsumo or you discarding into him (which of course, you shouldn't, so don't).

It is also noted in Sasaki Hisato's (the professional player who had made a million yen playing in parlors) book (Hisato's Note), a very similar situation.　http://www.amazon.co.jp/%E8%B6%85%E6%94%BB%E6%92%83%E9%BA%BB%E9%9B%80%E3%83%92%E3%82%B5%E3%83%88%E3%83%8E%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88-MYCOM%E9%BA%BB%E9%9B%80%E3%83%96%E3%83%83%E3%82%AF%E3%82%B9-%E4%BD%90%E3%80%85%E6%9C%A8-%E5%AF%BF%E4%BA%BA/dp/4839923051/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1344582510&sr=8-1

His hand is very likely to already be able to call tiles, or do you not look at those discards and immediately become concerned about at least a half-flush? While it's true that a triplet of his wind would allow him to ignore the half-flush and try something deceptive like pair wait on a pin or sou tile while still showing half-flush, that's enough of an edge-case that I am not hugely concerned about it. At this point, I've already assumed that he is able to call tiles.

If you really assume that he is going for honitsu, then you should remember that hon itsu with his wind and three doras will turn his hand from 3900 (maybe 5200) to haneman in just one call, as well as decreasing his shanten by one and getting him rid of his "neck"/nekku. Certainly you would have liked to discard this tile earlier, and yes, maybe it is not a situation where you would have put yourself into by your own means, but the WWYD was created this way and you must abide.
Hon itsu is in itself a slow hand (and cheap without bonus tiles), you should rather be glad to expect him getting picked on by your left-right guys, or by yourself if you draw tenpai at a point (it is not the same attacking when you are still shanten, than doing it when you are tenpai). It is true that there is the regrettable case that it becomes late game and you can not North anymore because none has come out yet, however as that confirms it was being held, that is a blessing on its own.

Don't get me wrong, I also assume and read that it is unlikely for him to have a pair of North (basics of reading: he wouldn't discard in this flashy and gay fashion if he had them, unless it was a game where he has to get first or second place for the life of him), but as I have told you, the timing for cutting it is not met with 5m, as it is the tile you least want to keep at present (having already judged that while it has possible evolutions, all those evolutions are inferior to the current shape), without any firm reason for having it wither within our hand.

You're correct. This is an artifact of my post previously being larger and including a discussion of how you might make discards that don't strictly advance your shanten count, but still keep you viable, in the event that later in the game either or both of the 5m and the 6m appear to be risky. Tossing the 9p instead of the 5m in this instance allows you to keep both the 5m and 6m in your hand, and also allows you to keep a future 3m or 6m in your hand without completely abandoning your chance at winning before your opponents. I condensed this section a lot before posting because it was very unwieldy and difficult to follow, and it seems like the potential ittsu win there after drawing 69s and waiting on 8p got mistakenly merged into the ittsu win after drawing/calling 8p and waiting on 69s, which is obviously not the same thing.

In other words, you took a pee but it dripped out of the toilette. That is cool, it happens, and I bet it is not nice getting 1up'd on something like that publicly. Think about it the other way around, keeping this North until your hand and board situation has met the proper requirements to let it go. In other words, it doesn't matter what you want to do or where you want to go, a good discard order requires not to discard dora yet at this point and hand shape.

I mean, anyone can play tenari (letting the hand flow by itself by discarding all isolated tiles, like this dora, while keeping everything that sticks together, then leaving the complex decisions for the future), many middle level players' strategy consist on going tenari until they hit tenpai and riichi, and folding if someone reaches before they do, and this does take them somewhere, but it also ensures that they get stuck. You cannot win at mahjong in the long run that way. It doesn't require any particular skill to just know that if you draw two tiles that stick together they become a ryanmen, and that you may draw them, and that you might be able or not to get rid of ones and nines for tan yao, and that the best way to get to pinfu is this, or that, but as long as there are deeper factors within it and you cannot see and comprehend them, you will end up minus.

And losing in mahjong is just that. A long run minus. Be a winner! Be plus!

I do believe you are probably a winner, as you do exhibit notions to assure yourself a placing better than the middle line of 2.5, but it is also necessary to grow some power of analysis in pros and cons to go with it. It is true that situations like the one from this WWYD are very specific and the judgment is perhaps uncommon, and this will probably nor stain nor englorify any winning record, but as with all things it is the strategic reasoning that follows with it that matters, and it goes beyond basic notions of pai-kouritsu.

In other words, it is obviously not a matter of tile efficiency or whether to saki-giri or not, but a case of strategy towards improving the chances towards salvaging yourself without a need to go all-or-nothing at any point. Or perhaps, I am too tenhou'ish about it.

Cute dig, and of course it's my fault for overlooking this in my post. However, this is not something I'm really familiar with since I mostly play at Toupai (although I've recently taken up Tenhou as well). The buttons there are always present at the bottom of your screen; while they will light up by default if you can actually press them, you can turn that off and I always have because it's frankly annoying. Once you make that change, there isn't any indication when you enter tenpai; when you do enter tenpai, pressing the riichi button does not show you which tiles you can discard to remain in tenpai (or what your wait would be); and if you discard a tile that does not leave you in tenpai after having pressed riichi, you just discard that tile without declaring riichi.

I suggest you play in a more competitive environment than Toupai. Tenhou is great for upper levels. Not so much because of the tenhou system itself, but because you will later on meet some very strong players, and sometimes famous ones. I have, by mere coincidence, played at the same table as a few kyoukai pros, HAZ (the mahjong researcher), Totsugeki himself, Konokey (he always scores high up in tenhou championships and he is currently the top Jansou Mode player), and even Kajimoto Takunori himself. They have all taken into tenhou, because it is the most competitive, hot and fun environment to play in. The first levels are a bore, sure, but the rewards are well worth of it. I suggest you get a hold of a premium membership and use the Windows client. You can keep very detailed stats on your playing and see what is failing precisely and what is having success. Also, tenhou players have formed sort of a brotherhood in a way. If you keep playing tenhou, I expect you to climb up and come to me so that we may have our shoubu! Otherwise, drop by the IRC channel and pick up some games at lobby 7447, I am usually available. If you wish to know anything about the site or the client, let me know and I will find it in my best endeavor to help you in any way can.

EDIT: Wait.
Are you RegalStar?

EDIT2:
Well, turns out you are not RegalStar, but you go by "Wave" in tenhou. It has only been a few games, but it seems like you do not need much help at all. Happy reaching, hoping to see you soon at a table, Nathan.