North. Shoulda been dropped earlier. I don't care if it is Dora. It is also a Cancer. With the way the hand looks like, it'll be dropped anyways sooner or later.
My point in detailing the above is: there are a ton of useful tiles and ways forward that will allow you to attempt to end the hand early by discarding North now
From purely a fastest-to-win point of view, the North tile slows us down.
f nobody calls the North, this is the best possible outcome, because now you have the widest possible path to a winning hand. (...) If you draw 4p, 7p, or 9p; you can drop the remaining unneeded tile in that suit and be one-away for pinfu. If you draw 6s or 9s, you can drop 9p and be one away from a complete hand if you later draw 4m, 7m, 4p, or 7p (which is either pinfu or has no yaku, but can still be won with self-draw and has a few ways to get back to pinfu). If you draw 7m, you can drop 9p and similarly be one-away waiting for 6s, 9s, 4p, or 7. If you draw 4m, you can actually still potentially use the extra 6m by dropping 1p and 9p, and waiting to complete the 6-9s and 3-6m patterns, which could add tanyao if you get the 6s. Finally, if you can call 6s, then you can also drop 1p and 9p and aim for open tanyao.
His hand was dangerous when it only contained two North tiles, and now his call will have put the other players on edge.
If nobody calls the North, this is the best possible outcome, because now you have the widest possible path to a winning hand. If you draw or are able to call an 8p, then you have a straight and can go out however you like. If you draw 4p, 7p, or 9p; you can drop the remaining unneeded tile in that suit and be one-away for pinfu. If you draw 6s or 9s, you can drop 9p and be one away from a complete hand if you later draw 4m, 7m, 4p, or 7p (which is either pinfu or has no yaku, but can still be won with self-draw and has a few ways to get back to pinfu).
You seem to live in an alternate universe where chasing pinfu (which will do both, restrict you from calling tiles and quite evidently lower EV) or tan yao (whose natural discard procedure will in most cases require you to drop a shanten which you cannot do under the present situation) are in any way faster than the current shape, provide extra security (which they don't) or have a higher EV (which is not so either). (Either you believe that, or you are rooting for options that don't fulfill either of those three requirements)
I don't expect you to be able to calculate exact EV in-game, but when you are an experienced player you can more or less figure out these easy EV-change cases (basic situations, manualbook-patterns) on your own just by looking at the tile shape. But, to be sure and to better explain this to you, I took the time to go into ara's tool and find it out tangibly. Turns out, I was, as expected, right about my judgment on that:
I had already figured out all those possibilities you enlist, and soon accurately categorized them as inferior to the current shape. Being so the case, rather than keep the middle 5 of the expensive manzu suit, discarding it now is more strategic.
You should have realized by now that there is a quite big gap between a hand with two dora unable to call tiles, and a hand with three dora able to call any tile. Also, you do not wish the other two players at edge, you are not competing against them this hand, right now, as things stand.
Ah-hah... drawing 69s and discarding 9p for one away. I see... Very interesting move, except...
You would be just throwing away ittsuu tenpai.
(Don't worry, I don't think you would ever commit that error online, as the flashy riichi button would just show up for you and you would just curiously happen to click it to see what your wait was, but you do realize that your vision of this hand is, to say the least, off)
WaveMaster wrote:You seem to live in an alternate universe where discarding North now prevents you from calling tiles in the future, which it doesn't. You still have the mostly complete ittsu in your hand, and you haven't abandoned it. Tanyao is not a very likely option with this hand, just something that comes up on the off-chance that you draw 4m after discarding North. At that point, you're 1shanten, and you stay 1shanten if you drop 9p. Then, you could enter tenpai with tanyao by calling 6s and dropping 1p. So it doesn't decrease your shanten count, but it's just one of many other possible outcomes.
If we're just trying to move to the next hand, why are we calculating EV anyway?
It's hard for me to comment on this, because I'm not familiar with the specifics of the EV calculator. It seems like you're evaluating the situation where we discard North and then draw 9p. I imagine it wants us to keep the possibility of ittsu alive because it's callable and because it gives one han that could still potentially be stacked with pinfu. It may also be considering the possibility that we riichi with this hand, which I don't see happening. Regardless, I don't find the calculation very relevant in a situation where I am trying for a quick win with minimal vulnerability.
If you want my answer to this new WWYD you propose, then I would say that it depends on how I feel about discarding the 6m. If I feel comfortable about discarding the 6m, then I would and take the 1shanten for pinfu. If I felt queasy about discarding the 6m (by the vague terms "comfortable" and "queasy" I refer to my impression that someone will call this tile to advance their hand, which would be based on their calls and discards, which aren't fully known since this is in the future), then I would probably discard the drawn 9p. This is a distinction I previously removed from the post in order to to keep things simple, because once you start talking about hypotheticals where you will make different decisions based on the riskiness of a tile, it becomes difficult to talk about all the potential futures.
His hand is very likely to already be able to call tiles, or do you not look at those discards and immediately become concerned about at least a half-flush? While it's true that a triplet of his wind would allow him to ignore the half-flush and try something deceptive like pair wait on a pin or sou tile while still showing half-flush, that's enough of an edge-case that I am not hugely concerned about it. At this point, I've already assumed that he is able to call tiles.
You're correct. This is an artifact of my post previously being larger and including a discussion of how you might make discards that don't strictly advance your shanten count, but still keep you viable, in the event that later in the game either or both of the 5m and the 6m appear to be risky. Tossing the 9p instead of the 5m in this instance allows you to keep both the 5m and 6m in your hand, and also allows you to keep a future 3m or 6m in your hand without completely abandoning your chance at winning before your opponents. I condensed this section a lot before posting because it was very unwieldy and difficult to follow, and it seems like the potential ittsu win there after drawing 69s and waiting on 8p got mistakenly merged into the ittsu win after drawing/calling 8p and waiting on 69s, which is obviously not the same thing.
Cute dig, and of course it's my fault for overlooking this in my post. However, this is not something I'm really familiar with since I mostly play at Toupai (although I've recently taken up Tenhou as well). The buttons there are always present at the bottom of your screen; while they will light up by default if you can actually press them, you can turn that off and I always have because it's frankly annoying. Once you make that change, there isn't any indication when you enter tenpai; when you do enter tenpai, pressing the riichi button does not show you which tiles you can discard to remain in tenpai (or what your wait would be); and if you discard a tile that does not leave you in tenpai after having pressed riichi, you just discard that tile without declaring riichi.
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