Do you riichi?

[DdR_Dan]

Sanshoku which is normally rare is even harder with the character tile suit distribution

Do you mean the tiles visible on the whole board?

Yes, with the remaining tiles that can be in other players' hands it's hard to make runs:
are left

One reason to hold on to and then discard 2 is because you have 24, and then you draw a 5, and your wait changes from 3 only to 3/6. If you instead call and then discard 2, you didn't draw a 5 so that didn't happen. Things like 112, 122, 223, 233, 244, 224 are likely if the 2 was connected to a wait. Sometimes it can just be a lone 2 though. One other possibility is 246, and now the 5 could be their winning tile.

Does the type of call (run in the same suit, in another suit, pon) change how much dangerous 6p (and, in general, the tiles near 2p) is?

Yes, if the call was any combined wait with 2p. For example, if they pon 111p and discard 2p, or if they chii 234p discard 2p, then the tiles around there probably safe now, since they completed their wait in the area, and other areas are more dangerous. There are probably some exceptions.

If the call was in any other area, then it's more likely the 2p was part of a combined wait. Sometimes, it becomes the pair instead though:
: In this case, if you pon 6m, you discard 2p which was part of a combined wait, but now it's the pair and your winning tile is somewhere else.

One thing I didn't think about before was they could have something like , and when they discard 2p, they do need 6p.

Now that I think about it, maybe it does matter if it's pon or chii. If you have 2 completed sets, and like the example farther above a pair, a pair+run wait, and a run wait, if you call pon, you discard next to the other pair and your wait is somewhere else. If you call chii, you discard next to the pair and at least one of your winning tiles is next to that tile. This is probably more common than having 3 pairs, so maybe you can make the rule that if it's pon and your discard isn't next to the pon, it's less likely that your winning tile is near that discard, and if it's chii, it's more likely. I've never thought about this before so I've never looked for it in matches but it sounds plausible. That's interesting to think about.

[Mauro]

According to Daina's book, if it's a pon don't bother asking yourself if the tiles near the discard are safe or dangerous; if it's a chii and the discard is in the same suit, it's likely safe; if it's a chii and the discard is in another suit, it's likely dangerous (which, pon aside, agrees with what you're saying). It's a topic I'm thinking about

By the way, I'm watching one of your videos, the part about defense, and you say that an early 1 discard before yakuhai means 2,3,5 are likely to be dangerous; senki suji theory says that an early 1 means 3,6 are likely to be dangerous. I was wondering if you use/agree with such theories.

[DdR_Dan]

I don't know any theories besides my own, but, it looks like the 1 in 145 is even worse than the 1 in 134. Both can improve to 1345 on one end, but 134 can improve to 1234 which is like a lone 4 but better, and 145 can improve to 1456, which is just a lone 1. I would still think the 2/5 is dangerous, but that reasoning would make the 3/6 dangerous as well. I used to think it was the other way around, 1 in 145 was better than 1 in 134.

It's good to know I'm probably reasonably close with my reasoning for the discard after pon/chii. When it's all my own theories, I run the risk of being way off sometimes. lol

[Mauro]

Both can improve to 1345 on one end, but 134 can improve to 1234 which is like a lone 4 but better, and 145 can improve to 1456, which is just a lone 1

Yup, but since 1234 is quite flexible as a form, I think I'd keep the 1 in 134, rather than that in 145.

Another situation:

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South 4, I'm first with a small lead on second; I have pinfu tanyao dora, so I can go dama and hope to win 3900. With riichi, it's 7700+. I have eight outs, but very few dots were discarded. Given I don't need the points, so 3900 would be more than enough:

- If I riichi: I warn then I'm ready, but maybe someone will begin to defend and some of them could be scared in discarding dots (also depending on what I discard later); I lose any chance to defend, but with the lead I have also if I pay I'd expect a 2nd-3rd place.
- If I go dama: I can defend, but I'd still face three players aiming to win.

(I riichied, same turn kamicha riichied too, discarding 2s; toimen won from shimocha and I ended first anyway; with more time to think about it, I'm not sure it was the best choice. After kamicha riichied I'm not sure if I'd have defended, since kamicha winning could mean I lose first place, also if I pay it's unlikely I end fourth, I have a good wait and a good hand, and with 1p in kamicha discards maybe someone would discard 4p.)

[Krabman]

I think dama is standard in such situations. It's better to catch someone off guard or just pull a Hanetsumo out of
nowhere

[Mauro]

Would you go in defense if after kamicha riichied you should discard dangerous tiles?

Not sure what's hanetsumo

[Krabman]

Hanetsumo = Haneman Tsumo

If I'm correct, even a direct Haneman wouldn't put you in 4th place. The Tenhou rule of thumb is: 'when there's no risk of falling to 4th, go for 1st'. So no, I don't think I'd fold. Maybe... if I had to discard Dora during Kamicha's ippatsu turn.

I'm still a beginner so my suggestions can all be rubbish xD

[or2az]

even a direct Haneman wouldn't put you in 4th place

a direct haneman by any of the opponents would cause the dealer to lose 12,000 points.
31,900-12,000=19,900
However, if you riichi, you also lose the 1000 pt ricchi stick. That would put you in 4th.

[Krabman]

Correct! Yes, one of those situations where that little stick makes a difference.

[DdR_Dan]

I wouldn't riichi cause you can get 1st without winning the hand, and even if you don't get tenpai you might still win, but if you play into any hands, you probably won't get first. Against kamicha riichi I would discard any suji, honor tile, and probably terminals, but if I drew any other tile I'd discard , as it's still possible to win with a pair elsewhere.